I have `Activist friends here who question that the Election WAS even Stolen....That Ahmadinejad supports the Poor in Iran - who are NOT being represented by the MEDIA... ex.): Why is this not a huge story? The Wash. Post is typically one of the most neo-conservative of the major papers. Is our government and our media faciliating the same interventionist mistakes that undeniably led to the Iranian Revolution itself.. .... The Iranian People Speak ~ By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty The Washington Post Monday, June 15, 2009 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757_pf.html
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
(see Link for complete story) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups' May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
For more on polling in Iran, read Jon Cohen's "Behind the Numbers"
(slected) Ahmadinejad, himself born into rural poverty, clearly has the support of the poorer classes, especially in the countryside, where nearly half the population lives. Why? In part because he pays attention to them, makes sure they receive some benefits from the government and treats them and their religious views and traditions with respect. Mousavi, on the other hand, the son of an urban merchant, clearly appeals more to the urban middle classes, especially the college-educated youth. This being so, why would anyone be surprised that Ahmadinejad carried the vote by a clear majority? Are there now more yuppies in Iran than poor people?
Why is there so little discussion of the issue of class in this election? Is it because so many professional and semi-professional commentators on Iran are themselves from the same class as Mousavi's supporters, and so instinctively identify with them? Myself, I'm a worker, and a former union organizer. When I watched the videos and viewed the photos of the pro-Mousavi rallies in Tehran and other cities, I didn't feel elated – I felt a chill. To me, this didn't look like a liberal reform movement, it felt like a movement whose real target is a government that exercises a "preferential option for the poor," to use the words of Christian liberation theology. ...(See Link above for story)
Then why are they claiming that even in the big cities as well as even in Mousavi's own district Ahmadinejad has more than twice as much of the vote? While perhaps he might have won in the poor rural areas, it does not seem possible he won by the same margin in the big cities and especially not in Mousavi's own area where local loyalties run high.
I had seen the same article and was thinking the same things you state but even while I was reading Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty's article myself, a number of questions were popping into my head, and this is even before I read the following article that debunks their interpretation of the poll numbers: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/did-polling-predict-ahmadinejad-victory.html
Before I read this, it came into my head, how could you seriously try to conduct an accurate poll in a country where the wrong answer could possibly land you in jail? or at least put you under suspicion or get you fired (which happened to an Iranian friend of mine)? Then I saw the breakdown of their so-called poll (which suspiciously was not included in their article) stating that over 50% of those questioned refused to give an answer, said they had no opinion or were undecided yet. This info was not included in their original article, why? It seems quite relevant to their interpretation of the numbers and completely what you might expect to find in a politically repressive society. Also, "Well, indeed, Ahmadinejad has more than twice as much of the vote as his next-closest rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi. But he also only has 33.8 percent of the total vote." This is a far cry from the more than 60 some percent of the vote that is claimed went to Ahmadinejad. As well as his victory was claimed within two hours of the elections closing, the tallies from the districts were not given out until the next day (opposite of how they are usually announced) as well as many other irregularities such as on Saturday an opposition leader questioned why no blank votes were counted (since there usually are a few) suddenly a few hours later a couple of hundred blank ballets showed up in the numbers. I've talked to Iranians that were voting in the election (have you?) and although it is in no way a scientific sampling, they say every person they talked to was not voting for Ahmadinejad. If really over 60% of the people voted for him, then why are there a million protesting in the streets risking their lives? And it is all across the country!
Now many of the rally are said to be 2 million to 3 million Iranians!
Why would you trust a government that blocks text messages? blocks youTube, facebook, even many personal emails?
Why would you trust Ahmadinejad that claims Iran is the most stable country in the world? When he says there are no gays in Iran at all? A government that will put to death a 16 girl because she was raped? The 51 year old man-married with children -claimed she wore a too provocative dress!!!!! She received death by hanging, he received 95 lashes. You trust this kind of government?
How Iran's Hackers Killed Big Brother - The Daily Beast
5 comments:
I have `Activist friends here who question that the Election WAS even Stolen....That Ahmadinejad supports the Poor in Iran - who are NOT being represented by the MEDIA...
ex.):
Why is this not a huge story? The Wash. Post is typically one of the most neo-conservative of the major papers. Is our government and our media faciliating the same interventionist mistakes that undeniably led to the Iranian Revolution itself..
....
The Iranian People Speak ~
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
The Washington Post
Monday, June 15, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757_pf.html
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
(see Link for complete story)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups' May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
For more on polling in Iran, read Jon Cohen's "Behind the Numbers"
Also:
http://www.alternet.org/world/140636/iran's_'stolen'_election:_a_hardline_demagouge's_victory_over_a_'reformer'_not_so_fast/
(slected)
Ahmadinejad, himself born into rural poverty, clearly has the support of the poorer classes, especially in the countryside, where nearly half the population lives. Why? In part because he pays attention to them, makes sure they receive some benefits from the government and treats them and their religious views and traditions with respect. Mousavi, on the other hand, the son of an urban merchant, clearly appeals more to the urban middle classes, especially the college-educated youth. This being so, why would anyone be surprised that Ahmadinejad carried the vote by a clear majority? Are there now more yuppies in Iran than poor people?
Why is there so little discussion of the issue of class in this election? Is it because so many professional and semi-professional commentators on Iran are themselves from the same class as Mousavi's supporters, and so instinctively identify with them? Myself, I'm a worker, and a former union organizer. When I watched the videos and viewed the photos of the pro-Mousavi rallies in Tehran and other cities, I didn't feel elated – I felt a chill. To me, this didn't look like a liberal reform movement, it felt like a movement whose real target is a government that exercises a "preferential option for the poor," to use the words of Christian liberation theology.
...(See Link above for story)
Then why are they claiming that even in the big cities as well as even in Mousavi's own district Ahmadinejad has more than twice as much of the vote? While perhaps he might have won in the poor rural areas, it does not seem possible he won by the same margin in the big cities and especially not in Mousavi's own area where local loyalties run high.
I had seen the same article and was thinking the same things you state but even while I was reading Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty's article myself, a number of questions were popping into my head, and this is even before I read the following article that debunks their interpretation of the poll numbers: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/did-polling-predict-ahmadinejad-victory.html
Before I read this, it came into my head, how could you seriously try to conduct an accurate poll in a country where the wrong answer could possibly land you in jail? or at least put you under suspicion or get you fired (which happened to an Iranian friend of mine)? Then I saw the breakdown of their so-called poll (which suspiciously was not included in their article) stating that over 50% of those questioned refused to give an answer, said they had no opinion or were undecided yet. This info was not included in their original article, why? It seems quite relevant to their interpretation of the numbers and completely what you might expect to find in a politically repressive society. Also, "Well, indeed, Ahmadinejad has more than twice as much of the vote as his next-closest rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi. But he also only has 33.8 percent of the total vote." This is a far cry from the more than 60 some percent of the vote that is claimed went to Ahmadinejad. As well as his victory was claimed within two hours of the elections closing, the tallies from the districts were not given out until the next day (opposite of how they are usually announced) as well as many other irregularities such as on Saturday an opposition leader questioned why no blank votes were counted (since there usually are a few) suddenly a few hours later a couple of hundred blank ballets showed up in the numbers. I've talked to Iranians that were voting in the election (have you?) and although it is in no way a scientific sampling, they say every person they talked to was not voting for Ahmadinejad. If really over 60% of the people voted for him, then why are there a million protesting in the streets risking their lives? And it is all across the country!
here is some more, especially about the myth of Ahmadinejad's rural support:
http://mickhartley.typepad.com/
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/70412
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html
Now many of the rally are said to be 2 million to 3 million Iranians!
Why would you trust a government that blocks text messages? blocks youTube, facebook, even many personal emails?
Why would you trust Ahmadinejad that claims Iran is the most stable country in the world? When he says there are no gays in Iran at all? A government that will put to death a 16 girl because she was raped? The 51 year old man-married with children -claimed she wore a too provocative dress!!!!! She received death by hanging, he received 95 lashes. You trust this kind of government?
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